Public benchmark · 2026-05-12
How well SpellRack maps real Wizards-published precons onto the WotC Commander Bracket framework. Every settled precon is scored with our bracket scorer and compared to the ground truth (every WotC precon = Bracket 2 / Core).
How we benchmark — methodology, scoring rules, and limitations →
decklist_loaded_at IS NOT NULL AND release_date < today − 30 days (settled, not preview-window noise).estimateBracketAsync — the same scorer used by every deck page on the site and the AI copilot's estimate_bracket tool.Lower-accuracy sets show where upgrade triggers fire too aggressively.
| Set | Total | Matches | Accuracy | Mispredictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMD | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| CMR | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| MKC | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| WOC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| NCC | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| OTC | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| C21 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| C20 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| C18 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| AFC | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| C19 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| BRC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| CMM | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| MOC | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| TDC | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| PIP | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| C17 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| C15 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| DSC | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| NEC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| 40K | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| EOC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| DRC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| BLC | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| ECC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| KHC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| ZNC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| M3C | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| LCC | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| WHO | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| FIC | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| LTC | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | — |
| ONC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| C13 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| CLB | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | — |
| DMC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| MIC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| VOC | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| KHM | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| M21 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| GRN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| TMC | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| MH1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| C16 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| LEG | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| EMN | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | — |
| BFZ | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| FRF | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
| C14 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | — |
| RTR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | — |
152 rows. ✅ = predicted bracket 2 (correct). ❌ = mispredicted.
| Set | Deck | Commander | Expected | Predicted | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMD | Zedruu the Greathearted | Zedruu the Greathearted | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMR | Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait | Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MKC | Morska, Undersea Sleuth | Morska, Undersea Sleuth | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| WOC | Tegwyll, Duke of Splendor | Tegwyll, Duke of Splendor | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| NCC | Kitt Kanto, Mayhem Diva | Kitt Kanto, Mayhem Diva | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMD | Riku of Two Reflections | Riku of Two Reflections | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMD | The Mimeoplasm | The Mimeoplasm | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| OTC | Olivia, Opulent Outlaw | Olivia, Opulent Outlaw | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C21 | Willowdusk, Essence Seer | Willowdusk, Essence Seer | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C20 | Kathril, Aspect Warper | Kathril, Aspect Warper | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C18 | Aminatou, the Fateshifter | Aminatou, the Fateshifter | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C18 | Saheeli, the Gifted | Saheeli, the Gifted | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| AFC | Vrondiss, Rage of Ancients | Vrondiss, Rage of Ancients | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C19 | Ghired, Conclave Exile | Ghired, Conclave Exile | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| BRC | Mishra, Eminent One | Mishra, Eminent One | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMM | Sliver Gravemother | Sliver Gravemother | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MOC | Gimbal, Gremlin Prodigy | Gimbal, Gremlin Prodigy | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| NCC | Kamiz, Obscura Oculus | Kamiz, Obscura Oculus | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| TDC | Eshki, Temur's Roar | Eshki, Temur's Roar | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| PIP | Caesar, Legion's Emperor | Caesar, Legion's Emperor | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| WOC | Ellivere of the Wild Court | Ellivere of the Wild Court | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C17 | Arahbo, Roar of the World | Arahbo, Roar of the World | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C15 | Ezuri, Claw of Progress | Ezuri, Claw of Progress | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DSC | Winter, Cynical Opportunist | Winter, Cynical Opportunist | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| NCC | Anhelo, the Painter | Anhelo, the Painter | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| NEC | Chishiro, the Shattered Blade | Chishiro, the Shattered Blade | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MOC | Brimaz, Blight of Oreskos | Brimaz, Blight of Oreskos | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| 40K | Szarekh, the Silent King | Szarekh, the Silent King | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| TDC | Shiko and Narset, Unified | Shiko and Narset, Unified | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| OTC | Yuma, Proud Protector | Yuma, Proud Protector | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| EOC | Szarel, Genesis Shepherd | Szarel, Genesis Shepherd | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DRC | Temmet, Naktamun's Will | Temmet, Naktamun's Will | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| TDC | Zurgo Stormrender | Zurgo Stormrender | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| BLC | Bello, Bard of the Brambles | Bello, Bard of the Brambles | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| BLC | Hazel of the Rootbloom | Hazel of the Rootbloom | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| AFC | Sefris of the Hidden Ways | Sefris of the Hidden Ways | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| ECC | Ashling, the Limitless | Ashling, the Limitless | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| KHC | Ranar the Ever-Watchful | Ranar the Ever-Watchful | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| ZNC | Anowon, the Ruin Thief | Anowon, the Ruin Thief | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| M3C | Satya, Aetherflux Genius | Satya, Aetherflux Genius | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| M3C | Ulalek, Fused Atrocity | Ulalek, Fused Atrocity | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DRC | Saheeli, Radiant Creator | Saheeli, Radiant Creator | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DSC | Zimone, Mystery Unraveler | Zimone, Mystery Unraveler | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| PIP | The Wise Mothman | The Wise Mothman | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| M3C | Omo, Queen of Vesuva | Omo, Queen of Vesuva | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| OTC | Stella Lee, Wild Card | Stella Lee, Wild Card | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| NCC | Henzie "Toolbox" Torre | Henzie "Toolbox" Torre | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| PIP | Dr. Madison Li | Dr. Madison Li | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MKC | Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser | Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LCC | Admiral Brass, Unsinkable | Admiral Brass, Unsinkable | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| WHO | Davros, Dalek Creator | Davros, Dalek Creator | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| PIP | Dogmeat, Ever Loyal | Dogmeat, Ever Loyal | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMM | Commodore Guff | Commodore Guff | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LCC | Pantlaza, Sun-Favored | Pantlaza, Sun-Favored | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LCC | Clavileño, First of the Blessed | Clavileño, First of the Blessed | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MOC | Bright-Palm, Soul Awakener | Bright-Palm, Soul Awakener | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMM | Anikthea, Hand of Erebos | Anikthea, Hand of Erebos | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| FIC | Y'shtola, Night's Blessed | Y'shtola, Night's Blessed | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LCC | Hakbal of the Surging Soul | Hakbal of the Surging Soul | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LTC | Sauron, Lord of the Rings | Sauron, Lord of the Rings | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MOC | Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir | Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MOC | Kasla, the Broken Halo | Kasla, the Broken Halo | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| ONC | Ixhel, Scion of Atraxa | Ixhel, Scion of Atraxa | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| ONC | Neyali, Suns' Vanguard | Neyali, Suns' Vanguard | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C19 | Anje Falkenrath | Anje Falkenrath | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| OTC | Gonti, Canny Acquisitor | Gonti, Canny Acquisitor | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LTC | Galadriel, Elven-Queen | Galadriel, Elven-Queen | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C13 | Derevi, Empyrial Tactician | Derevi, Empyrial Tactician | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CLB | Faldorn, Dread Wolf Herald | Faldorn, Dread Wolf Herald | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| AFC | Prosper, Tome-Bound | Prosper, Tome-Bound | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C19 | Kadena, Slinking Sorcerer | Kadena, Slinking Sorcerer | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| BRC | Urza, Chief Artificer | Urza, Chief Artificer | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DMC | Dihada, Binder of Wills | Dihada, Binder of Wills | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DMC | Jared Carthalion | Jared Carthalion | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C21 | Adrix and Nev, Twincasters | Adrix and Nev, Twincasters | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| NCC | Perrie, the Pulverizer | Perrie, the Pulverizer | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MIC | Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver | Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CLB | Firkraag, Cunning Instigator | Firkraag, Cunning Instigator | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C21 | Breena, the Demagogue | Breena, the Demagogue | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C21 | Osgir, the Reconstructor | Osgir, the Reconstructor | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| AFC | Galea, Kindler of Hope | Galea, Kindler of Hope | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C18 | Lord Windgrace | Lord Windgrace | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| 40K | The Swarmlord | The Swarmlord | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MIC | Leinore, Autumn Sovereign | Leinore, Autumn Sovereign | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C21 | Zaffai, Thunder Conductor | Zaffai, Thunder Conductor | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| NEC | Kotori, Pilot Prodigy | Kotori, Pilot Prodigy | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| VOC | Strefan, Maurer Progenitor | Strefan, Maurer Progenitor | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C20 | Kalamax, the Stormsire | Kalamax, the Stormsire | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| KHM | Kardur, Doomscourge | Kardur, Doomscourge | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C15 | Kalemne, Disciple of Iroas | Kalemne, Disciple of Iroas | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| M21 | Rin and Seri, Inseparable | Rin and Seri, Inseparable | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MKC | Mirko, Obsessive Theorist | Mirko, Obsessive Theorist | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| KHC | Lathril, Blade of the Elves | Lathril, Blade of the Elves | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C20 | Gavi, Nest Warden | Gavi, Nest Warden | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C20 | Jirina Kudro | Jirina Kudro | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C20 | Otrimi, the Ever-Playful | Otrimi, the Ever-Playful | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| EOC | Kilo, Apogee Mind | Kilo, Apogee Mind | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| GRN | Emmara, Soul of the Accord | Emmara, Soul of the Accord | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C17 | Inalla, Archmage Ritualist | Inalla, Archmage Ritualist | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C13 | Jeleva, Nephalia's Scourge | Jeleva, Nephalia's Scourge | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMR | Wyleth, Soul of Steel | Wyleth, Soul of Steel | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C19 | Sevinne, the Chronoclasm | Sevinne, the Chronoclasm | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C18 | Estrid, the Masked | Estrid, the Masked | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| TMC | Heroes in a Half Shell | Heroes in a Half Shell | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| ZNC | Obuun, Mul Daya Ancestor | Obuun, Mul Daya Ancestor | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MH1 | Morophon, the Boundless | Morophon, the Boundless | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C16 | Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder | Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C16 | Atraxa, Praetors' Voice | Atraxa, Praetors' Voice | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C16 | Breya, Etherium Shaper | Breya, Etherium Shaper | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C16 | Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis | Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LEG | Rubinia Soulsinger | Rubinia Soulsinger | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| FIC | Terra, Herald of Hope | Terra, Herald of Hope | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C16 | Saskia the Unyielding | Saskia the Unyielding | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| EMN | Bruna, the Fading Light | Bruna, the Fading Light | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| EMN | Gisa and Geralf | Gisa and Geralf | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C15 | Meren of Clan Nel Toth | Meren of Clan Nel Toth | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| BFZ | Zada, Hedron Grinder | Zada, Hedron Grinder | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| FIC | Tidus, Yuna's Guardian | Tidus, Yuna's Guardian | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| TDC | Felothar the Steadfast | Felothar the Steadfast | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LEG | Xira Arien | Xira Arien | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| ECC | Auntie Ool, Cursewretch | Auntie Ool, Cursewretch | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| BLC | Ms. Bumbleflower | Ms. Bumbleflower | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| BLC | Zinnia, Valley's Voice | Zinnia, Valley's Voice | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMM | Zhulodok, Void Gorger | Zhulodok, Void Gorger | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| LTC | Éowyn, Shieldmaiden | Éowyn, Shieldmaiden | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| 40K | Inquisitor Greyfax | Inquisitor Greyfax | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CLB | Captain N'ghathrod | Captain N'ghathrod | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CLB | Nalia de'Arnise | Nalia de'Arnise | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| VOC | Millicent, Restless Revenant | Millicent, Restless Revenant | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C17 | Edgar Markov | Edgar Markov | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C17 | The Ur-Dragon | The Ur-Dragon | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C15 | Daxos the Returned | Daxos the Returned | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| FRF | Atarka, World Render | Atarka, World Render | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C14 | Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury | Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| 40K | Abaddon the Despoiler | Abaddon the Despoiler | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C14 | Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath | Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C14 | Teferi, Temporal Archmage | Teferi, Temporal Archmage | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C15 | Mizzix of the Izmagnus | Mizzix of the Izmagnus | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| M3C | Disa the Restless | Disa the Restless | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DSC | Aminatou, Veil Piercer | Aminatou, Veil Piercer | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C14 | Daretti, Scrap Savant | Daretti, Scrap Savant | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C14 | Nahiri, the Lithomancer | Nahiri, the Lithomancer | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C13 | Oloro, Ageless Ascetic | Oloro, Ageless Ascetic | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C13 | Prossh, Skyraider of Kher | Prossh, Skyraider of Kher | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| RTR | Isperia, Supreme Judge | Isperia, Supreme Judge | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMD | Ghave, Guru of Spores | Ghave, Guru of Spores | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| TDC | Teval, the Balanced Scale | Teval, the Balanced Scale | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| MKC | Kaust, Eyes of the Glade | Kaust, Eyes of the Glade | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| DSC | Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls | Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| CMD | Kaalia of the Vast | Kaalia of the Vast | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| C13 | Marath, Will of the Wild | Marath, Will of the Wild | 2 | 2 | ✅ |
| FIC | Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER | Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER | 2 | 2 | ✅ |